Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 14.236772 16.267636 18.452068 20.972337 23.795690 26.856782 30.422518
2025-05-25 11.186490 13.934160 17.116474 21.058092 25.791343 31.273629 38.084354
2025-06-01 9.586990 12.625058 16.314126 21.092663 27.084354 34.311497 43.647469
2025-06-08 8.244143 11.421240 15.447917 20.877380 27.951409 36.793730 48.611627
2025-06-15 7.369704 10.667037 15.002733 21.052193 29.193396 39.678002 54.092947
2025-06-22 6.804460 10.245191 14.921070 21.646535 30.959801 43.271667 60.621017
2025-06-29 6.067726 9.493955 14.301383 21.421449 31.554221 45.286455 65.092955
2025-07-06 5.211449 8.475771 13.205032 20.416229 30.959393 45.600589 67.203424
2025-07-13 4.889116 8.217378 13.171716 20.913334 32.490164 48.895975 73.561587
2025-07-20 4.575582 7.938034 13.075137 21.292090 33.845559 51.979142 79.728303
2025-07-27 4.192866 7.509647 12.710706 21.225824 34.513598 54.073508 84.529008
2025-08-03 3.821786 7.063552 12.278688 21.013120 34.926798 55.785134 88.809325
2025-08-10 3.529562 6.730209 12.011103 21.055596 35.756520 58.190129 94.288611
2025-08-17 3.300975 6.485918 11.869673 21.288677 36.893457 61.108791 100.672118
2025-08-24 3.051704 6.179067 11.594827 21.272255 37.610658 63.386117 106.131989
2025-08-31 2.796726 5.836660 11.230114 21.073019 38.005023 65.155993 110.850089
2025-09-07 2.624572 5.632586 11.089748 21.243094 39.009988 67.924641 117.238990
2025-09-14 2.530073 5.569056 11.194565 21.844451 40.767427 71.973036 125.828573
2025-09-21 2.327822 5.273005 10.850238 21.616764 41.077223 73.645364 130.597168
2025-09-28 2.043798 4.782607 10.103803 20.603595 39.948439 72.858254 131.254155
2025-10-05 1.969732 4.722367 10.173291 21.104677 41.530272 76.699032 139.773196
2025-10-12 1.886433 4.634426 10.181241 21.486556 42.909298 80.238142 147.898422
2025-10-19 1.760164 4.440457 9.963838 21.419738 43.457508 82.352368 153.652327